Morning traders, I'm...từ Smart Jet

Morning traders, I'm watching AUDNZD to add longs, that quick reclaim of the 1.08000 support level is a decent technical indication that bulls have the strength and want to resume the trend higher but I want to see a bit further confirmation with at least a move above yesterday's highs at 1.08200 this morning to add, will be monitoring Else, the risk off flows have already abated slightly, the past couple of months have seen plenty of these sudden risk off flows but none continued for multiple days so it's not surprising, we watch carefully for potential setups but we don't see any other than the potential opportunity to add to the AUDNZD longs at the moment

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Morning traders, after two full days of lunches, dinners, and brainstorming with some quite substantially experienced fund managers I get the sentiment out there for the next 3 to 6 months is bearish indices, bullish the Dollar, and bullish the JPY, that didn't surprise me much as it's the classic recession trade, in other words, that has been the dominant topic of our debates, an upcoming recession That is the medium to long term sentiment that mostly came through in the discussions and I kinda resonate with that too, high rates sooner or later will feed through the economy and things will break leading to outflows from risk assets and inflows into safe haven Not much else to add to that, for now it's something too long term for us to act on it right away but I do keep in mind that the easier trades heading into the summer will probably be USD longs and JPY longs

Smart Jet

Morning traders, no clean sentiment to trade from the FOMC yesterday, while instead the pressure on US banks is resurfacing again and that's likely going to dent sentiment across the board, in that context the likes of JPY and CHF longs are quite attractive again, also USD longs but only against high beta currencies are also a decent option where we are already positioned with the AUDUSD shorts So yes, we like classic safe haven currencies in this environment and looking across the board for setups to possibly position long the JPY or CHF Other than that, the ECB rate decision is another one that we watch carefully, hawkishness from the ECB will likely just put more pressure on risk assets while if they pivot we have some EURUSD shorts to take

Smart Jet

Morning traders, with the CPI everywhere I look I see notes about the likelihood of a strong print, Goldmans is also expecting a number a tiny bit above expectations so we are geared in that direction but obviously when the consensus is geared one way the risk is that the number doesn't meet the already high expectations triggering an unwind of positions So, even if the likelihood is USD strength we don't want to get into the event too long the Dollar, meaning that we will likely adjust the recently added AUDUSD short before the CPI later, then once we see the numbers and the price action around it we can start looking at some medium term direction across the board

Smart Jet