Gold M30: 4,110 Sweep or 4,180 Reclaim?

#XAU/USD#

Gold has rejected 4,167–4,180 supply and broken the rising trendline.

Now the real question is:

Will 4,141 hold — or become the trigger for another leg lower?

Macro Driver

Gold is trading in a market waiting for the next Fed signal.

The USD has softened and expectations for an October rate hike have fallen sharply, giving Gold some downside protection.

However, Treasury yields remain elevated while rising oil prices and geopolitical risks continue to keep inflation expectations in focus.

The next major catalyst is the FOMC Minutes.

A dovish message could support Gold.

A hawkish message could revive USD/yield pressure.

M30 Market Structure

The latest price sequence is:

Supply Rejection → Trendline Break → Pivot Retest

Key levels:

• 4,167–4,180 — M30 Supply / Fib 0.5–0.618
• 4,150 — Fib 0.382 / Reaction
• 4,141 — Pivot Zone
• 4,125–4,130 — M30 FVG
• 4,105–4,110 — Major Demand / Liquidity

Scenario 1 — Bearish Continuation

If Gold fails to reclaim 4,141–4,150:

4,141 → 4,130 → 4,125

A clean break below the FVG could expose:

4,105–4,110 Major Demand

This is where downside liquidity becomes much more interesting.

Scenario 2 — Sweep & Reclaim

But sellers still need confirmation.

If Gold sweeps below 4,125–4,130 and quickly reclaims the Pivot:

Sweep → MSS → Reclaim

The recovery path could reopen toward:

4,150 → 4,167–4,180

A sustained break above 4,180 would invalidate the immediate bearish rejection thesis and reopen the higher Fibonacci levels.

The Real Question

Is 4,141 the beginning of another bearish expansion —

or just the reset before Gold attacks 4,180 again?

Would you watch the 4,130 FVG or the 4,180 supply first?