EUR/USD - Downtrend Controls, 1.128 Remains Next Target

#EUR/USD#

EURUSD is still trading inside a clear descending channel, while price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and under the 1.1440–1.1500 resistance zone. The broader structure continues to produce lower highs and lower lows, so the H8 bias remains bearish.

At around 1.1385, I would avoid chasing the downside after such a strong decline. The cleaner setup is a corrective rebound toward 1.1440–1.1500. If that area rejects price again, I favor another bearish continuation toward:

🎯 Target: 1.1280

Macro Market: today’s fundamental backdrop supports the bearish structure. EURUSD is trading near 1.1380 as hawkish Fed commentary keeps expectations for additional US tightening elevated, while Middle East tensions and higher energy prices continue to support the Dollar.

The Euro also remains vulnerable to the rate differential: markets are pricing only around a 45% probability of another ECB hike in October, while the Fed outlook has shifted more aggressively hawkish. That keeps USD demand stronger for now.

A sustained H8 recovery above 1.1500 would weaken the bearish continuation scenario.

AURICVERSE View: the trend is already extended, so I prefer patience over selling the low. If EURUSD rebounds into 1.1440–1.1500 and fails again, 1.1280 becomes the next downside level in focus.