XAUUSD 1H Analysis 📊

Gold is at a key decision point right now ⚖️

Chart Breakdown:

1. Major Supply Rejection: The 4,189 - 4,175 zone has rejected price twice with strong selling. The last rejection dropped price 160 points. This remains a _sell-on-rise_ zone until proven otherwise.

2. Ascending Triangle Breakdown: Price broke down from the 4,060 - 4,075 ascending triangle. After the breakdown, we’re trading at 4,059. Measured move from the triangle targets 4,030 - 4,021.

3. Key Demand Zones Below:

   4,042 - 4,030: Fresh demand previous support. First bounce likely from here.

   3,980 - 3,967: Major weekly demand. If 4,030 breaks, this becomes the next magnet.

4. Upside Resistance:

   4,108 - 4,120: Intraday supply. Sellers likely active here on any pullback.

   4,174 - 4,189: Major supply. A daily close above flips the structure bullish.

Fundamental Backdrop 🔥

No red folder news on Forex Factory today, but Iran tensions Oil spiking 4.4% are driving risk-off sentiment. USD Index is weak which supports Gold. Expect volatility to stay high into 14 July US CPI.

My Bias:

Bearish while price holds below 4,120. The 4,042 - 4,030 zone is critical - watching for reaction here. If this zone breaks, the slide to 3,980 opens up.

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Reclaim 4,120 and we likely retest 4,175.