EBC Markets Briefing | Crude prices up as inventory extended decline

Oil prices made small gains on Friday amid thin trading on Friday. Mediator Qatar said the US and Iran made progress in talks toward a permanent peace agreement.

Oil prices have fallen back sharply to near pre-war levels over recent weeks. Commodity strategists warned traders are underestimating the scale of persistent supply-side challenges.

Analysts consider a formal tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz improbable, yet they caution that Tehran will likely persist in asserting authority over the corridor.

US crude oil production rose to 13.93 million bpd in April, the highest on record, the EIA data showed, as producers ramped up output in response to higher oil prices owing to the Iran war.

Meanwhile, oil inventories fell for a 10th consecutive week as exports remained high and refineries raised their capacity use. China is set to take even fewer crude this month.

UBS lowered its Brent crude price forecasts. It cut its Q3 estimate to $80 and reduced its Q4 forecast to $80, citing de-escalation in peace talks. It trimmed its 2027 outlook to $75.

EBC Financial Group analyst says, WTI crude remained below the $70 hurdle, with RSI indicating oversold conditions. This could trigger a short-term correction back up to retest the resistance at $73.065.

Asset recap

As of market close on 2 July, among EBC major products, Equifax shares led gains amid sector-wide rally, though Mizuho lowered its price target on Equifax shares to $210 from $222.

Shares of Lam Research cratered after a combination of macro uncertainty and sustained semiconductor sector profit-taking sent the wafer fabrication equipment maker sharply lower.

Gold prices rebounded from an eight-month low, as weaker-than-expected US jobs data pushed investors to scale back expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

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