Current trend

After yesterday’s publication of US macroeconomic statistics, the USD/JPY pair corrected downwards but today it is recovering, trading at 146.26.

Thus, the consumer confidence index from the Conference Board for August amounted to 106.1 points against the forecast of 116.0 points, and the previous value fell from 117.0 points to 114.0 points. The number of open vacancies in the JOLTS labor market in July reached 8.827M, worse than expected at 9.465M, and the figure for the previous period was corrected from 9.582M to 9.165M. Thus, in the US, the downward trend in vacancies continues, reflecting the gradual cooling of the labor market.

Meanwhile, in Japan, there is a slight decrease in price growth rates: for example, inflation in the Tokyo region in August changed from 3.0% to 2.8% YoY, below the forecast of 2.9%, against which the Bank of Japan is unlikely to will go for changes in monetary policy at the next meeting on September 22. Now the regulator keeps the interest rate in the negative zone at –0.10%, which puts pressure on the national currency. If the indicator remains at this level, the USD/JPY pair will continue to rise in the long term.

Support and resistance

The long-term trend is with the target at the resistance level of 148.75. The nearest support level from which you can open long positions with the first target at the high of the current week 147.25 is around 144.75.

The RSI indicator is approaching the overbought zone but has not entered it yet, which allows considering trades in both directions.

Yesterday, the quotes unsuccessfully tried to consolidate above 146.50 (high of August 17) and returned under the resistance level. The growth target within the mid-term uptrend is zone 2 (148.53–147.96). The key trend support is shifting to 141.85–141.33, and if it is reached within the downward correction, long positions with the first target at 147.25 will be relevant.

Support levels: 144.75, 141.70, 138.70.

Resistance levels: 148.75, 151.75.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from 144.75 with the target at 148.75 and stop loss around 143.25. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be opened below 143.25 with the target at 138.70 and stop loss around 145.25.