Current trend

The USD/CHF pair shows mixed dynamics, consolidating near 0.8830. The instrument retreated from the local highs of July 10, which were updated at the end of last week, despite the rather "hawkish" nature of the statements of the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell.

The official noted that the cost of borrowing will remain high for a long time. In addition, the head of the regulator admitted the possibility of another increase in the interest rate if the rate of inflation reduction in the country is insufficient. Analysts expect the value to remain unchanged in September with a probability of more than 80.0%, and in November, markets suggest a further increase of 25 basis points with a probability of about 50.0%.

Meanwhile, the Swiss franc was supported by data on Employment Change in Switzerland, published on Friday. According to the results of the second quarter, the indicator increased from 5.389 million to 5.432 million, which turned out to be better than analysts' expectations at the level of 5.428 million.

This week, investors will focus on macroeconomic statistics from the US and Switzerland, which will be published on Friday. In the US, the August report on the labor market will be presented, which can significantly affect the future monetary policy of the American regulator. Forecasts assume an increase in Nonfarm Payrolls by 170.0 thousand after an increase of 187.0 thousand in the previous month, and the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 3.5%. In turn, Switzerland will publish August inflation data: markets are looking for a 0.2% MoM acceleration in the Consumer Price Index after a 0.1% decline in July, and the annualized figure could correct from 1.6% to 1.5%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is slightly narrowed from below, remaining spacious enough for the current market activity. MACD is trying to reverse downwards keeping a buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having approached the level of "80", also reversed into a downward plane, signaling in favor of the development of corrective dynamics in the near future.

Resistance levels: 0.8850, 0.8875, 0.8918, 0.8960.

Support levels: 0.8826, 0.8800, 0.8756, 0.8700.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 0.8826 with the target at 0.8756. Stop-loss — 0.8875. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from 0.8826 as from support followed by a breakout of 0.8850 may become a signal for opening new long positions with the target at 0.8918. Stop-loss — 0.8810.