USD/JPY has likely peaked for now, but Credit Suisse’s broader outlook remains positive.

Initial support aligns at 143.89

USD/JPY has retested and again been capped at the 78.6% retracement of the 2022/2023 fall at 146.66 and top of the trend channel, now seen higher at 147.10, and we look for a deeper setback from here. 

Support is seen at 143.89 initially ahead of the 38.2% retracement of the rally from July and price support at 143.30/00, which we look to try and hold. Below 141.43 though remains needed to warn of more sustained phase of weakness in the broader range. 

Big picture, our bias remains to view weakness as temporary and corrective ahead of a move above 146.66 in due course for our core and long-held target at the ‘measured base objective’ at 148.57.