Alvin Liew, Economist at UOB Group, assesses the recently released US Nonfarm Payrolls figures for the month of June.

Key Takeaways

The latest US Labor Market Report was mixed as job creation came in below expectations at 209,000 jobs added in May (versus Bloomberg est 230,000) while the jobs print for Apr & May was revised lower by 110,000. Jobless rate receded to 3.6% (May: 3.7%), as the unemployed numbers fell by 140,000 to 5.957 million and participation rate held at 62.6%. Wage growth pace was above forecast, and at the same pace as May, at 0.4% m/m, 4.4% y/y. 

After the hawkish pause in the Jun FOMC, we assigned a high probability the Fed will hike once more by 25-bps in Jul. We continue to expect no rate cuts in 2023, with the FFTR terminal rate at 5.50% lasting through this year.  

Admittedly, the US Jun job creation while below forecast, remained above 200k and unemployment rate and wage growth highlighted the resilience of US labor market.