NZD/USD CHALLENGES 20-DAY SMA AT THE END OF THE WEEK

The NZD/USD rose to its highest level since late May, above the 20-day SMA at 0.6130.

ANZ predicts next week New Zealand GDP data will come in mixed.

NZD/USD to close a second consecutive week of gains.

The NZD/USD currency pair has recently surged to its highest level since May, surpassing the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6130. The Greenback’s losses for the next sessions could be limited by hawkish bets for the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting past June, as recent development made investors foresee fewer odds of a rate cut by year-end.

Fed expectations remain steady for next week, but later rate cut bets decrease

Ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) June 13-14 meeting, the CME FedWatch Tool suggests that investors are placing higher probabilities on the Fed refraining from hiking rates and, instead, keeping the target rate steady at 5.00%-5.25%. However, the bets for a hike in July stand almost priced in at 85% and the odds of a rate cut by years-end decreased from 50% at the start of the week to nearly 15% due to the recent unexpected hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC). In that sense, a more hawkish stance by the Fed provides support for the USD.

On the other hand, following NZ Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data release, ANZ Bank is expecting next week to see “tepid” growth and an improvement from the current account deficit